Will they lose their hememony over China and other Asian countries? Is the world's leading economy in decline? Do the U.S?
VIVEK WADHWA AND ALEX SALKEVER (Stanford University and BusinessWeek.com) try to answer these questions in an interesting article published in The Washington Post (original link at the end) “How America reinvents itself once again“.
The authors point out “We have gone from Great recession to Great discomfort”And they defend that although there are critical signs to worry there are also reasons to be optimistic.
I think it is an article that should be read and reflect on whether any country in the world, for example Spain, you need to reinvent yourself in order to maximize the benefits of extraordinarily important changes linked to a wide range of technological advances.
I will summarize the content of the article.
The reasons for pessimists in the United States
1. Despite massive government stimulus, the world's largest and most advanced economy continues ranching (high unemployment, slow growth, bleak job growth prospects, stagnant wages. ,,,)
2. The college graduates Recent and young professionals may well be the first generation with a lower standard of living than their parents.
3. The United States appears to have entered a period of slow decline, much like the British Empire throughout the 20th century.
4. While the United States continues to dominate in the emergence of new technological powers, the largest IPO of the decade belongs to Facebook, a social network (a company more similar to a means of communication than to one with innovative technology).
5. The new regulations have driven up the costs of testing new medicines and health products that many pharmaceutical companies have moved trial trials to Europe and Asia.
6. Despite growing evidence of immigrant entrepreneurial talent and their contributions to technological innovation and job growth technology in the United States, Washington, DC rulers have not gathered the votes needed to reform regressive policies and punitive of immigration.
7. Add to all this that a aging population it requires more and more support from younger workers, to meet the costs of health and other benefits for the older workers.
8. And… the United States is increasingly seen as a historical footnote rather than a superpower.
The reasons for optimism
The authors invite you to “peel the layers of the onion”, until you discover a quite different reality.
1. Indeed, the United States is on the cusp of a spectacular renaissance and rejuvenation, fueled by an incredible wave of technological innovation. A series of technological advances They will result in huge productivity gains and social cost savings necessary to sustain economic growth and prosperity.
2. These advances, mostly of digital nature, will complete the shift initiated by the Internet to a new era in which the precepts of the Moore's Law they would apply to almost any field.
4. Computer Aided Design and Manufacturing to remodel traditional manufacturing. These technologies will make it possible to reduce waste and replace almost all the components of conventional manufacturing with inputs that are more friendly and profitable for the environment executed by robots and computer programs.
5. In this digital world, A / B testing or parallelization of R&D processes will become commonplace for almost everything from aerial simulations, advertising design, or building artificial organs. This, in turn, will allow for much more rigorous testing of products and processes.
6. Very low cost digital distribution platforms for educational content and improvements to understanding and the way the brain learns will bring about a radical change in the way we acquire knowledge. This will result in more open and flexible systems of education with a constantly learning population.
According to the authors, while the whole world will benefit from these changes, the United States would be uniquely positioned to lead this radical change.
The energy issue in the US
While solar energy is a less polluting energy source than coal, many panel manufacturers are nevertheless trying to solve a hazardous waste problem. Fueled by billions in incentives from the US government, the industry is creating millions of solar panels each year and, in the process, thousands of tons of sludge and polluted water.
The cost per watt of solar and wind power continues to fall. GTM Research estimates that solar energy has already decreased by 97.2 percent over the past 35 years.
Renewables have undermined coal-based power generation
Although there are fewer advances in algae biofuels, advances in biotechnology drug development techniques will likely provide benefits equivalent to making carbon fuels from algae fed with water and carbon dioxide from the environment.
Meanwhile, the increased availability of natural gas being extracted in the United States through new fracking techniques has caused energy costs to plummet.
In turn, this has led to a new wave of high-efficiency chemical and steel plant construction along the US Gulf Coast, near shipping lanes and benefiting from cheap natural gas or electricity.
Energy efficient technologies like LED light bulbs, improved heating and cooling systems, and hardware-enabled internet (like the Nest thermostat) can save enough money to offset higher upfront costs tied to alternative energy.
The future of the United States
The implications of these changes are enormous.
- Production costs: US manufacturing will rebound. Economies of scale benefited and labor costs of labor will go down due to automation and mechanization.
- Education: People will learn more, faster, easier and with much more pleasure.
- Health: Healthcare costs will drop dramatically and multiple treatment approaches will give way to personalized medicine.
- Connected hardware- cars, thermostats, cell phones, pacemakers, appliances, heating and cooling systems - it will provide endless useful data that will allow us to optimize its efficiency and live a more comfortable life.
- Social impact: These advances will address the traditional weaknesses of the US economy (economic growth that benefits the upper classes, while income and life expectancy stagnate for 70 percent of the country's population in the last three decades).
(the graphic has been added by us)
They end with a quote from Peter Diamandis, "A Masai warrior on a cell phone in central Kenya has better access to knowledge than President Reagan 25 years ago."
The authors of the original article
Wadhwa and Salkever are the authors of a book on how technology will transform our lives, which is expected to be published in the fall of 2014.
Wadhwa (Stanford University) is director of research at the Center for Entrepreneurship and Research Linked to Other Universities (Duke, Emory, Harvard, California at Berkeley. Salkever is a writer specializing in cloud computing and new technologies. technology editor at BusinessWeek.com.
See original article: How the United States is reinventing itself yet again